Constrained Cost-Coupled Stochastic Games with Independent State Processes

We consider a non-cooperative constrained stochastic games with N players with the following special structure. With each player there is an associated controlled Markov chain. The transition probabilities of the i-th Markov chain depend only on the state and actions of controller i. The information structure that we consider is such that each player knows the state of its own MDP and its own actions. It does not know the states of, and the actions taken by other players. Finally, each player wishes to minimize a time-average cost function, and has constraints over other time-avrage cost functions. Both the cost that is minimized as well as those defining the constraints depend on the state and actions of all players. We study in this paper the existence of a Nash equilirium. Examples in power control in wireless communications are given.Comment: 7 pages, submitted in september 2006 to Operations Research Letter

Brownian Dynamics of a Sphere Between Parallel Walls

We describe direct imaging measurements of a colloidal sphere's diffusion between two parallel surfaces. The dynamics of this deceptively simple hydrodynamically coupled system have proved difficult to analyze. Comparison with approximate formulations of a confined sphere's hydrodynamic mobility reveals good agreement with both a leading-order superposition approximation as well as a more general all-images stokeslet analysis.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, REVTeX with PostScript figure

Development and testing of dry chemicals in advanced extinguishing systems for jet engine nacelle fires

The effectiveness of dry chemical in extinguishing and delaying reignition of fires resulting from hydrocarbon fuel leaking onto heated surfaces such as can occur in jet engine nacelles is studied. The commercial fire extinguishant dry chemical tried are sodium and potassium bicarbonate, carbonate, chloride, carbamate (Monnex), metal halogen, and metal hydroxycarbonate compounds. Synthetic and preparative procedures for new materials developed, a new concept of fire control by dry chemical agents, descriptions of experiment assemblages to test dry chemical fire extinguishant efficiencies in controlling fuel fires initiated by hot surfaces, comparative testing data for more than 25 chemical systems in a 'static' assemblage with no air flow across the heated surface, and similar comparative data for more than ten compounds in a dynamic system with air flows up to 350 ft/sec are presented

Preventative tele-health supported services for early stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a protocol for a pragmatic randomized controlled trial pilot

Background Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a prevalent debilitating long term condition. It is the second most common cause of emergency admission to hospital in the UK and remains one of the most costly conditions to treat through acute care. Tele-health monitoring offers potential to reduce the rates of re-hospitalisation and emergency department visits and improve quality of life for people with COPD. However, the current evidence base to support technology adoption and implementation is limited and the resource implications for implementing tele-health in practice can be very high. This trial will employ tele-health monitoring in a preventative capacity for patients diagnosed with early stage COPD following discharge from hospital to determine whether it reduces their need for additional health service support or hospital admission and improves their quality of life. Methods/Design We describe a pilot study for a two arm, one site randomized controlled trial (RCT) to determine the effect of tele-health monitoring on self-management, quality of life and patient satisfaction. Sixty patients who have been discharged from one acute trust with a primary diagnosis of COPD and who have agreed to receive community clinical support following discharge from acute care will be randomly assigned to one of two groups: (a) Tele-health supported Community COPD Service; or (b) Usual Care. The tele-health supported service involves the patient receiving two home visits with a specialist COPD clinician (nurse or physiotherapist) then participating in daily tele-monitoring over an eight week period. Usual care consists of six home visits to the patient by specialist COPD clinicians again over eight successive weeks. Health status and quality of life data for all participants will be measured at baseline, on discharge from the service and at six months post discharge from the service. Discussion The tele-health service under study is a complex service delivered through a collaboration between local authority and health care partners. The implementation of this service demanded significant changes to established working patterns and has been a challenging process requiring considerable planning - a challenge that many providers are likely to face in the future. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN6885601

A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with Type 2 diabetes: the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no. 68)

<i>Aims/hypothesis</i> The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model for Type 2 diabetes that can be used to estimate the likely occurrence of major diabetes-related complications over a lifetime, in order to calculate health economic outcomes such as quality-adjusted life expectancy. <i>Methods</i> Equations for forecasting the occurrence of seven diabetes-related complications and death were estimated using data on 3642 patients from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). After examining the internal validity, the UKPDS Outcomes Model was used to simulate the mean difference in expected quality-adjusted life years between the UKPDS regimens of intensive and conventional blood glucose control. <i>Results</i> The models forecasts fell within the 95% confidence interval for the occurrence of observed events during the UKPDS follow-up period. When the model was used to simulate event history over patients lifetimes, those treated with a regimen of conventional glucose control could expect 16.35 undiscounted quality-adjusted life years, and those receiving treatment with intensive glucose control could expect 16.62 quality-adjusted life years, a difference of 0.27 (95% CI: –0.48 to 1.03). <i>Conclusions/interpretations</i> The UKPDS Outcomes Model is able to simulate event histories that closely match observed outcomes in the UKPDS and that can be extrapolated over patients lifetimes. Its validity in estimating outcomes in other groups of patients, however, remains to be evaluated. The model allows simulation of a range of long-term outcomes, which should assist in informing future economic evaluations of interventions in Type 2 diabetes

Time trends in breast cancer survival: experience in a single centre, 1975-89.

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to investigate whether survival of patients with breast cancer has changed over the period 1975-89. A total of 2604 women diagnosed as having invasive breast cancer at a clinical oncology unit in London were followed up for between 5 and 20 years. Patients were divided into four groups according to menstrual status (pre or post) and the staging of cancer (operable or inoperable). For each group, survival from diagnosis was compared between three consecutive 5-year cohorts, both with and without adjustments made for relevant prognostic factors. No temporal patterns were found in patients with inoperable cancer, in whom the survival rate was consistently low. Of women with operable cancers, differences were seen only among post-menopausal women, for whom the best survival patterns were seen in patients diagnosed between 1985-89. This is probably due to tamoxifen being commonly prescribed as adjuvant treatment for this cohort of patients. We cannot explain an apparently worse survival in the group of patients presenting in the early 1980s compared with that observed in the late 1970s

Use of methods for specifying the target difference in randomised controlled trial sample size calculations : Two surveys of trialists' practice

© The Author(s), 2014.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Abel-Jacobi maps for hypersurfaces and non commutative Calabi-Yau's

It is well known that the Fano scheme of lines on a cubic 4-fold is a symplectic variety. We generalize this fact by constructing a closed p-form with p=2n-4 on the Fano scheme of lines on a (2n-2)-dimensional hypersurface Y of degree n. We provide several definitions of this form - via the Abel-Jacobi map, via Hochschild homology, and via the linkage class, and compute it explicitly for n = 4. In the special case of a Pfaffian hypersurface Y we show that the Fano scheme is birational to a certain moduli space of sheaves on a p-dimensional Calabi--Yau variety X arising naturally in the context of homological projective duality, and that the constructed form is induced by the holomorphic volume form on X. This remains true for a general non Pfaffian hypersurface but the dual Calabi-Yau becomes non commutative.Comment: 34 pages; exposition of Hochschild homology expanded; references added; introduction re-written; some imrecisions, typos and the orbit diagram in the last section correcte

Can you believe what you read in the papers?

The number of reports of clinical trials grows by hundreds every week. However, this does not mean that people making decisions about healthcare are finding it easier to obtain reliable knowledge for these decisions. Some of the information is unreliable. Systematic reviews are helping to resolve this by bringing together the research on a topic, appraising and summarising it. But the quality of these reviews depends greatly on the quality of the studies, and this usually means the quality of their reports. If there are fundamental flaws within a study, such as the use of inappropriate 'randomisation' techniques in the context of reviews of the effects of interventions, the reviewers will not be able to fix these. Worse still, if they are not aware of underlying flaws, they might make incorrect judgements about the quality of the research in their review. A study by Wu and colleagues of 'randomised trials' from China provides a reminder of the cautious approach needed by users of scientific articles. They contacted the authors of more than 2000 research articles, which purported to be reports of randomised trials; and concluded that ten of every 11 studies claiming to be a randomised trial probably did not use random allocation. Better education of researchers, peer reviewers and editors about what is, and is not, a properly randomised trial is needed; along with better reporting of the details for how participants were allocated to the different interventions. Systematic reviewers must be cautious in making assumptions about the conduct of trials based on simple phrases about the trial methodology, rather than a full description of the methods actually used. It's not that you can't believe anything that you read in the papers, just that you cannot believe everything